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Course Reading You Can Use:
The reading links below have been selected to provide students with an opportunity for more in-depth analysis and research on key economic principles that you may cover in your class. They make ideal reading assignments or can be used as a springboard for class discussion.
All Talk, No Action? (May 2008)
Everybody talks about inflation, but market-based measures of inflation expectations have remained remarkably stable.
Hoping For A Global Slowdown (April 2008)
After four years of average annual global real GDP growth of better than 4 1/2 percent, recent data indicate that the pace of advance is slowing in the major industrial countries, with the US economy on the verge of, and perhaps already in, outright recession.
Global Economic Perspective (April 2008)
The world economy stands at a fragile point. The United States has slowed
sharply and may be in, or approaching, a recession. The world economy as a whole
is proceeding much more strongly, however, and a key question is the extent to
which it has "decoupled" from the United States and may even be cushioning the US downturn through a process of "reverse coupling." (more)
ARecessionary Job Picture (March 2008)
In what is the most recessionary jobs report since the last official downturn in
2001, payrolls fell 63,000 last month and were down 101,000 in the private
sector, according to today's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (more)
Job Picture Darkens (March 2008)
Total employment contracted in February for the second straight month, and private employment contracted for the third straight month. (more)
Economic Stimulus Payment Notice (February 2008)
We are pleased to inform you that the United States Congress passed and President George W.
Bush signed into law the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, which provides for economic stimulus
payments to be made to over 130 million American households. (more)
Ohio Voters and Candidates Take a Dim View of NAFTA (February 2008)
As the Democratic primary in Ohio enters its final week, Sen. Hillary Clinton
and Sen. Barack Obama both agree that the North American Free Trade Agreement
(NAFTA) is hollowing out America’s industrial heartland. Their criticisms of NAFTA are borne out in the Buckeye State, which has lost more than 200,000 manufacturing jobs over the last seven years. (more)
FOMC Statement (January 2008)
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 3 percent. (more)
A Primer on the Mortgage Market... (January 2008)
The he United States was in the midst of a
residential real estate boom from 1996
to 2005, and the U.S. Census Bureau
reports for that period show that homeownership the percentage of home-owning
households increased from 65.4 percent to 68.9
percent.. (more)
Recession Is Coming (December 2007)
We are changing our calls for the US growth and monetary policy. Since the shock of tighter financial conditions surfaced in August, we've incrementally reduced our outlook for futher growth. (more)
Is It the Best of Times or the Worst? (November 2007)
The continuing implosion of the U.S. housing market has caused many forecasters to trim their economic-growth estimates for this year and next. Although none is openly using the R-word, most expect a period of substandard growth. (more)
Wages Continue to Grow Slowly. (October 2007)
Since 2001, median wages in nearly half of all states have failed to keep pace
with inflation. From 2001 to 2006, 21 states experienced real wage decline,
while only two states, Arkansas and North Dakota, experienced real annualized
wage growth of at least 2.0% per year (see figure). While the national economy recovered jobs lost from the last recession, wages for middle-income workers remained stagnant. (more)
Housing, Housing Finance, and Monetary Policy. (September 2007)
Recently, the subject of housing finance has preoccupied financial-market
participants and observers in the United States and around the world. The
financial turbulence we have seen had its immediate origins in the problems in
the subprime mortgage market, but the effects have been felt in the broader
mortgage market and in financial markets more generally, with potential
consequences for the performance of the overall economy. (more)
U.S. Job Market Is Gradually Cooling (August 2007)
Employment growth was below expectations in July, and the unemployment rate rose. The shortfall in jobs reflected a surprising drop in government employment. The labor market is gradually cooling to reflect the slowdown in the economy. (more)
The Sinking Dollar Also Has An Upside (July 2007)
Why Imagine waking up and finding the value of your assets has been halved. No,
you're not an investor in one of those Bear Stearns hedge funds that went belly
up. Welcome to London!(more)
Marginal Utility Is Not Rocket Science (June 2007)
Why do individuals pay much higher prices for some goods versus other goods? The common reply to this is the law of supply and demand. But what is behind this law? (more)
An Open Economy Is Vital To The US Economy (May 2007)
Today, President Bush reaffirmed America's continuing commitment to advancing open economies at home and abroad, including open investment and trade. (more)
I'll Stick With These: Some Sharp Observations on the Division of Labor (April 2007)
The young woman looked frightened. All I did wass ask some pointed questions. "Why do you have 35 kinds of energy bars, but only one brand of straight pins? And why are those made in China? Why aren't your pins made in America? (more)
Bernanke: Globalization and Monetary Policy (March 2007)
My topic this evening is the implications of ongoing global economic integration "globalization" for short -- for U.S. monetary policy. (more)
Union Members, Not Minimum-Wage Earners, Benefit When the Minimum Wage Rises (February 2007)
Supporters of raising the minimum wage argue it will raise the earnings of low-income workers. Labor unions are among the most prominent of these supporters, a fact that makes little intuitive sense, because very few union members work for the minium wage. (more)
The U.S. Economy in 2007: Prospects and Puzzles (January 2007)
That would all be very comforting, except for the puzzle I mentioned at the beginning, which could have serious implications for inflation and, therefore, for the "soft landing" I am hoping for. (more)
Will Moderating Growth Reduce Inflation? (December 2006)
December 12, 2006, statement of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said, "Readings on core inflation have been elevated, and the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain inflation pressures." The link between "inflation pressures" and the "level of resource utilization" is formalized by the Phillips curve, which says that short-term movements in inflation and unemployment (a measure of labor resource utilization) tend to go in opposite directions. (more)
Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change - Summary (November 2006)
There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, if we take strong action now. The scientific evidence is now overwhelming: climate change is a serious global threat, and it demands an urgent global response. (more)
Treasure Island: The Hidden Elegance of Comparative Advantage (November 2006)
An easier way to understand the lesson of comparative advantage is to see that there are two ways to get fish, the direct way and the roundabout way. The direct way is go fishing. The roundabout way is to collect water and trade it for fish. Which is better? It depends on which way is cheaper. Trade is simple. (more)
A View of My (Edmund Phelps) Scientific Work (October 2006) I began the movement to formulate the supply block of macroeconomic models
fundamentally differently: First, to express the choice problem of suppliers of labor and of goods in terms of their expectations of wages and prices "elsewhere"; the analysis led to the notion of the "equilibrium" level or path of employment in the correct-expectations sense of Marshall, Hayek and Myrdal--and of "disequilibrium." (more)
Two Steves and One Soichiro: Why Politicians Can't Judge Innovation (October 2006) The Cold War turned on a race to produce more weapons and wealth, a race run between markets and central planners. Khrushchev's famous 1956 warning, "History is on our side! We will bury you..." evoked an old idea. Marxists believed that the empowered proletariat is the undertaker of capitalism, and they also believed that economic planning would empower the proletariat. In the 1970s, even most of the non-socialist world wondered whether any system of private, decentralized innovation and development could stand up to the planning and market direction of the Japanese juggernaut. (more)
Remarks by Paulson on the International Economy (September 2006) One week from today, I will be in China to discuss the economic
relationship between our two nations. Today I will speak about China,
and more broadly about the international economic system.The prosperity of the United States and China is tied together in the
global economy, and how we work together on a host of bilateral and
multilateral issues will have a significant impact on the health of
the global economy. (more)
FRB: The Beige Book (September 2006) Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic activity continued to expand since the last report, but five Districts indicated deceleration while the remaining seven reported little change in the pace of growth. Some slowing in economic growth was seen in the Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts, though Dallas still characterized growth as strong. Most other Districts reported continued modest growth, though Atlanta described activity as "mixed", Richmond observed that growth was "slow," while San Francisco noted a "solid" growth pace. (more)
An Interview with Milton Friedman (September 2006) I recently sat down with Milton Friedman, a few days before his 94th birthday, to discuss the impact of two of his most important contributions to economics and liberty: A Monetary History of the United States, 1870 - 1960 [co-written] with Anna Schwartz, and Capitalism and Freedom. The ideas in both books had tremendous influence on the economic and intellectual landscape. (more)
Productivity - Remarks by Chairman Bernanke (August 2006) One of the most important economic developments in the United States in the past
decade or so has been a sustained increase in the growth rate of labor
productivity, or output per hour of work... Between 1995 and 2000, however, the rate of productivity growth picked up significantly, to about 2-1/2 percent per year--a figure that contributed to the view, held by many at the time, that the United States might be entering a new economic era. (more)
Growth in the Foreign-Born Workfoce and Employment of the Native Born (August 2006) Rapid increases in the foreign-born population at the state level are not associated wtih negative effects on the employment of native-born workers, according to a study by the Pew Hispanic Center that examined data from both the boom years of the 1990s and the period of recession and gradual recovery after 2000. (more)
Global Economic Integration: What's New and What's Not? (August 2006) When geographers study the earth and its features, distance is one of the basic measures they use to describe the patterns they observe. Distance is an elastic concept, however. The physical distance along a great circle from Wausau, Wisconsin to Wuhan, China is fixed at 7,020 miles. But to an economist, the distance from Wausau to Wuhan can also be expressed in other metrics, such as the cost of shipping goods between the two cities, the time it takes for a message to travel those 7,020 miles, and the cost of sending and receiving the message. (more)
Why Deficits Matter (July 2006) Chines president Hu Jintao's recent visit to America provided ample grist for the media mills, but despite all the attention surrounding protocol gaffes the real story of the meetings was lack of progress along any policy front, including economic relationships. (more)
The Pitfalls of Ceteris Paribus (July 2006) Ceteris paribus may well be the two most dangerous words in the economist’s toolkit. Loosely translated from Latin as “all other things being the same,” this concept has become a foil for partial-equilibrium analysis — an increasingly fruitless and misleading approach in today’s complex and interdependent world. With oil prices rising, the housing cycle turning, and central banks tightening, the pitfalls of ceteris paribus have never been greater... (more)
Farm Program Pays $1.3 Billion to People Who Don't Farm (July 2006) EL CAMPO, Tex. -- Even though Donald R. Matthews put his sprawling new residence in the heart of rice country, he is no farmer. He is a 67-year-old asphalt contractor who wanted to build a dream house for his wife of 40 years. Yet under a federal agriculture program approved by Congress, his 18-acre suburban lot receives about $1,300 in annual "direct payments," because years ago the land was used to grow rice... (more)
The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Some Practicle Issues (June 2006) Since the 1980s, economists have argued that the slope of the yield curve - the spread between long- and short-term interest rates - is a good predictor of future economic activity. While much of existing research has documented how consistently movements in the curve have signaled past recessions... (more)
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